<P>In South Africa’s highly divided society voters live in politically homogenous social environments. As a result, many voters are likely to reside in homogenous political information networks where their partisan identities reflect widely among their personal discussants. This paper argues that political discussion within social networks plays a primary role in shaping political attitudes and vote choice. Moreover, the extent of partisan homogeneity or heterogeneity within interpersonal discussant networks has important, yet distinct implications for voting behaviour. Using the 2004 and 2009 post elections surveys the research examines distributions of politically homogenous versus heterogeneous networks in South Africa and finds that network types are fairly evenly distributed and voters are not overly embedded in either network type. The research also demonstrates the consequences of the different network types on voting behavior by showing that homogenous discussion networks tend to encourage greater participation at the polls but also less defections and far greater consistency in vote choice. The analysis also shows how momentous socio-political events at the time of a particular election can change the nature of social networks, with consequences for electoral outcomes.</P>
South Africa is currently undertaking investments in electricity generation infrastructure on an unprecedented scale. The total discounted cost of the investment scenarios outlined in the Integrated Resource Plan 2010-30 range from R700 billion to R1.2trillion. Investments on this scale must be guided by a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis procedure. Since existing markets for electricity provide no information regarding consumer preferences across generation technologies, the inclusion of several benefits relevant to the choice between rival technologies requires the use of non-market valuation techniques. Towards this end, a contingent valuation study was conducted in April-May 2012, seeking to estimate the aggregate willingness to pay for green electricity products amongst upper-middle income Western Cape households, as well as to examine the characteristics of likely adopters. The survey found nearly 80% of respondent households to have some positive WTP for green electricity, as indicated by their agreement to sign up for a premium-priced green electricity product. However, many respondents indicated low confidence in these commitments. Econometric analysis of the hypothetical market responses produced an upper-bound mean WTP estimate of R227 per upper-middle income household per month, whilst a more conservative lower-bound model produced a mean monthly WTP of R68 per UMI household. These correspond to aggregate WTP values of R105 million and R31.2 million per month respectively. Characteristics found to be statistically significant positive predictors of WTP for green electricity are: household income; awareness of, and concern related to anthropogenic climate change; positive perceptions of renewable energy technologies as sources of electricity; and solar geyser ownership. Factors found to be statistically significant negative predictors of green electricity are; respondent age; respondent education; and, positive perceptions of nuclear energy.
In an unusual turn of events, the SA Clothing and Textile Workers Union (SACTWU) marched on the University of Cape Town on the first of March to protest against the continuing analysis of the crisis in the clothing sector by Nicoli Nattrass and Jeremy Seekings. Is this a reasonable example of free speech or a crude attempt at intimidation? SACTWU has regrettably declined several invitations to participate in a reasoned discussion of the issues, and has resorted to spin and misrepresentation in a series of public statements. Nicoli Nattrass and Jeremy Seekings have responded to SACTWU here and to General Secretary Andre Kriel in an Open Letter, available here.
Photo by Raymond Botha (The Monday Paper).
This seminar will be presented by Professor Staffan I. Lindberg, Principal Investigator, V-Dem, Associate Professor, Dept. of Political Science, University of Gothenburg & University of Florida, Research Fellow, Quality of Government Institute, Snr Adviser, International Law and Policy Institute.
The study of democracy and democratization lies at the center of political science and is increasingly important in economics, sociology, and history. In the post-Cold War world, democracy has also become a central foreign policy objective. Yet, there is little conclusive evidence about why some countries become and remain democratic and others do not. The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Research Program sets out to provide the first comprehensive theory of democratization, that also accounts for the multiple core principles and values in the varieties of democracy in the world today.: electoral, liberal, majoritarian, consensual, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian democracy. V-Dem also breaks down each core principle index into its constituent components, about 50 of them measured separately. Each component is comprised of several carefully chosen indicators, a total of 329 , measuring the quality of democracy across core institutions of democracies including elections, civil liberties, the judiciary, the executive, the legislature, political parties, gender, media, and civil society. The V-Dem Database will contain data on these for all countries of the world, annually from 1900 to the present including pre-independence eras. Being the first to use this unique database and by bringing together a research team consisting of leading democratization-scholars in the world, each with their unique set of expertise and area-competence, we aim to provide cutting-edge, systematic and theoretically revolutionizing examination of democratization. This research program is a collaboration between leading scholars from the Universities of Gothenburg, Lund, Stockholm, Notre Dame, Boston, Aarhus, Florida, Emory, Harvard, Berkeley, Michigan, Oslo, Case Western, Colorado, and the Catholic University of Chile, as well as scholars from 24 regional universities across the world.
I investigate labour earnings in the top tail (± top 12%) of the South African income distribution from 1995 to 2007, using a new harmonised data set constructed from the OHSs and LFSs (Kerr et al 2011). Nonparametric techniques suggest that the distribution is well approximated by a Pareto distribution. Surprisingly, this distribution seems to have been remarkably stable over the entire period. Parametric estimates suggest that the tail parameter is around 1.8, which suggests that the distribution is “fat tailed”. This implies that extreme outcomes are more common than with the standard “normal” distribution. I discuss some of the implications of such fat tails for the way we think about inequality.
Thirty young researchers from across Africa joined with UCT students in the first of the new intensive CSSR/Afrobarometer Summer Schools in January 2013. Participants took either an introductory or an advanced course in social statistics, together with courses focused on specific topics in the study of politics and policy-making in Africa. Participants were required to complete a mini research project and to present this on the final day of the School. Classes were taught by CSSR academics Profs Bob Mattes, Jeremy Seekings and Rajen Govender, and Dr Pedro Wolf, with additional help from Dr Eduard Grebe and Erica Penfold. Outside lecturers included Prof Joel Barkan, and Drs Danielle Resnick and Boniface Dulani. Participation in the School was funded by the Afrobarometer network and the UCT Vice-Chancellor's Strategic Fund.
Minimum wages in the South African clothing industry are set by mostly metro-based capital-intensive employers and organised labour in the National Bargaining Council for the Clothing Manufacturing Industry (NBC). These wages are routinely extended by the Minister of Labour to cover all firms. Firms that do not comply with the agreement are pursued through the courts and eventually shut down by the NBC. We have argued elsewhere that this has been harmful for labour-intensive growth. In this seminar, we summarise the argument briefly and then discuss recent wage-setting agreements that seek to reduce wage pressure on firms and job losses in non-compliant firms in South Africa.
The Centre for Social Science Research is offering up to eleven scholarships to UCT masters students whose marks are usually above 70%, on the following projects:
Research by Nicoli Nattrass and Jeremy Seekings (published as CSSR WP323 as well as by the Centre for Development and Enterprise) has been making waves. This week there was extensive coverage in Business Day and the Financial Mail. Business Day has a short video on the issue, and Nicoli Nattrass's talk on Tuesday 29 January. There was extensive debate on Cape Talk, prompted by an interview with Nicoli by John Maytham (listen to the 9-minute podcast on http://www.capetalk.co.za/
Nicoli Nattrass spoke at a press conference in Johannesburg today on new research on job destruction in South Africa's clothing industry. This week the High Court is hearing a case brought against the Minister of Labour and the National Bargaining Council for the Clothing Manufacturing Industry, by a group of employers in Newcastle, KZN, contesting the legality of aspects of South Africa's minimum wage-setting mechanisms. Also this week, writs of execution are due to be served on hundreds of factories that are not compliant with minimum wages, closing them down and putting thousands of workers out of work. A working paper on the current crisis in the clothing industry by Nicoli Nattrass and Jeremy Seekings is available through the CSSR and the Johannesburg-based Centre for Development and Enterprise.
PhD student (in Sociology and the CSSR) Gabby Kelly was quoted in an article by Rebecca Davis, published in the online Daily Maverick, debunking reports that some South African women drink whilst pregnant in order to harm their children. Sky News published a sensationalist report claiming that women are so desparate to access the more generous care dependency grant rather than the more modest child support grant.that they drink whilst pregnant in order to ensure that their children are born with foetal alcohol syndrome, a disability which may render them eligible for the care dependency grant. But the consensus among academic researchers is that there is no evidence for this.
The CSSR has received funding for a project on the uses of new technology in cash transfer programmes. Across Africa, governments, donors and NGOs are promoting cash transfer programs as effective means of poverty alleviation. These forms of social protection are viewed as promising ways to meet human development goals and, in some cases, political or human rights in themselves. Indeed, social protection programs represent one of the more significant forms of public service delivery in Africa today, though the political ramifications of their implementation are only starting to receive sustained attention. This new research will specifically address the ways in which beneficiaries are being personally identified.
Fidelis Hove, Nicoli Nattrass, Tafara Ngwaru & Eduard Grebe. Photo by Janneke van Rooyen.
On 14 December, three CSSR students, all supervised by Prof Nicoli Nattrass, were awarded PhDs in Economics. The three students were supported financially by the CSSR and worked on various aspects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa. Fidelis Hove's thesis examined the use of HIV prevalence estimates in regression models (including evidence from Zimbabwe and on the relationship between armed conflict and HIV). Tafara Ngwaru investigated the impact of socio-economic status and other structural drivers on HIV in Southern Africa, while Eduard Grebe's thesis focused on 'civil society leadership' on AIDS in South Africa and Uganda. Eduard will rejoin the CSSR as a postdoctoral fellow in January 2013.
Mike Morris - former CSSR director, and professor in UCT's School of Economics - has a new book, coauthored with Dave Kaplan (of UCT's School of Economics) and Raphael Kaplinsky (from the Open University in the UK). One Thing Leads to Another: Promoting Industrialisation by Making the Most of the Commodity Boom in Sub-Saharan Africa examines how Africa can build on high commodity prices to industrialise. The book is based on research conducted through the research unit PRISM, which was part of the CSSR, and is now wholely located in the School of Economics at UCT. The book was launched at the Cape Town summit of the "Capturing the Gains" research programme. It can be bought from online booktores, or downloaded for free through PRISM..
The CSSR has long been active in researching the experiences of, and the challenges and opportunities facing, young people in South Africa. Jeremy Seekings, Bob Mattes, Elena Moore, Ariane De Lannoy and Pedro Wolf conducted research for the Centre for Development and Enterprise, which recently published a summary report which in turn has received some publicity in the press. Jeremy's work focused on experiences in the labour market, and especially the ways in which inequalities are reproduced between generations. Bob's research focused on young people's attitudes towards democratic citizenship. Elena considered transitions in family life, Pedro considered health-compromising behaviours, and Ariane examined schooling and education.