Recent and upcoming events

How does a change of government affect public policy? Social protection policy reform under the Sata presidency in Zambia

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 5 April, 2016 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Hangala Siachiwena
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

The election in 2011 of President Michael Sata and his party, the Patriotic Front (PF), led to not only a major expansion of social cash transfers (SCTs) but to a decision for the initiative to be mostly state (as opposed to donor) driven as well. This study finds that under the former ruling party, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), there was a failure to address salient issues such as unemployment and income inequality, despite sustained economic growth between 2002 and 2011. The shortcomings of the MMD’s neoliberal economic framework led to increased demand especially among urban Zambians for a pro -poor reform agenda. Sata and the PF capitalised on these demands using a populist electoral strategy that included promises of pro-poor economic growth that would benefit people in villages and urban townships. Between 2011 and 2014, i.e. from the time of Sata’s election to his death in office, the PF government emphasised a shift from agricultural subsidies (which were preferred by the MMD) to cash transfers while also increasing budgetary allocations to other social protection programmes such as empowerment funds for youth and women. Reforms were also driven in part by other actors including international donors and agencies, civil society and bureaucrats, all of whom interacted with political leaders through various processes. The study highlights the importance of socio-economic factors, populist politics, electoral dynamics, and the roles played by different actors to understanding social policy reforms that happened after a change of government in Zambia.    

Hangala Siachiwena holds a BA in Development Studies and Economics from the University of Zambia and an MPhil in Development Studies from the University of Cape Town (UCT). He is currently a PhD candidate in the UCT’s Sociology department and a researcher on the Legislating and Implementing Welfare Policy Reforms (LIWPR) research project in the CSSR. His research looks at how and why social protection policy making is affected by changes of government in Southern African countries, including Malawi, Namibia and Zambia.   

Can communities influence donor money for HIV? Evidence from eight African countries.

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 29 March, 2016 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Gemma Oberth (CSSR)
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 
Background: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is the largest funder of the three diseases worldwide. One fifth of Global Fund grants are implemented by civil society organizations. However, the degree to which civil society and community groups are able to shape the content of those grants through the initial proposal (called a “concept note”) is uncertain and hard to measure.  
 
Methods: Global Fund concept notes from Kenya, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zanzibar, Zambia and Zimbabwe were systematically measured to assess the inclusion of civil society priorities. National Civil Society Priorities Charters were used as indicators for civil society priorities. Each priority in the country’s Charter was assessed for its inclusion in the Global Fund concept using a three-point scale (2=included, 1=partially included and 0=not included) and weighted based on its level of importance in the Charter.
 
Results: The percentage of civil society priorities that were included in Global Fund concept notes were as follows: Malawi (87%), Kenya (76%), Tanzania (67%), Zanzibar (67%), Uganda (64%), Swaziland (50%), Zimbabwe (40%) and Zambia (38%). Across the eight countries, civil society priorities on key populations were the most likely to get included in the concept notes (68%), while priorities on voluntary medical male circumcision were the least likely to get included (15%). Several contextual factors help explain these results. Using Afrobarometer survey data, civil society had greater influence over Global Fund concept notes in countries where people often attend community meetings (CI 95%, P=0.041), often join others to raise an issue (CI 95%, P=0.017) and feel completely free to say what they think (CI 95%, P=0.030). Using World Bank Governance Indicators, civil society had greater influence over Global Fund concept notes in countries where there is a greater degree of freedom of association and freedom of expression (CI 90%, P=0.083). In countries where civil society was more effective at influencing Global Fund concept notes, HIV prevalence was lower (CI 95%, P=0.021).  
 
Conclusions: This is some of the only statistical evidence to demonstrate that open and inclusive dialogue spaces are linked to a more effective HIV response. 

Immigration attitudes and immigration policy in Germany and South Africa

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 22 March, 2016 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Matthias Kronke (CSSR)
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

Although immigrant integration policies have long been hypothesised to be causally related to the salience of xenophobia, systematic empirical research investigating this relationship only gained momentum in recent years. One of the more robust findings is that more permissive policies seem to be associated with decreased perceptions of group threat from immigrants. Yet, these research projects are often limited to once-off cross-sectional comparisons of immigrant integration policies, and anti-foreigner sentiments in European countries. This study uses systematic methods to test the direction of the policy-attitude linkage through a longitudinal analysis. Moreover, the study contributes to the existing literature by expanding this test to South Africa, representing the hitherto under-researched developing world setting and a geographical area that differs from the highly industrialised European context. The longitudinal analysis of immigrant integration policies in Germany and South Africa confirms that over time both countries implemented several changes that resulted in more accommodating policy frameworks. A subsequent analysis of the policy-attitude relationship confirms the direction of causality running from policies to citizens’ economic and cultural threat perceptions. Furthermore, the results confirm that integration policies indeed have the theorised mediating influence on the salience of economic threat in Germany. However, immigrant integration policies do not seem to be connected to economic threat in the case of South Africa. 

Detecting Manipulation in Authoritarian Elections: Survey-Based Methods in Zimbabwe.

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 15 March, 2016 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Professor Michael Bratton - Michigan State University
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 
This paper compares official results from the July 2013 presidential and parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe with findings from a nationally representative pre-election survey.  The comparison confirms that the dominant incumbent party won the elections but by far smaller margins than officially reported. This discrepancy provides analytical leverage to identify the possible presence of coercive mobilization and opposition vote suppression.
 

The Role of the Media in German Election Campaigns

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 8 March, 2016 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Professor Christina Holtz-Bacha - Friedrich Alexander - University of Erlange-Nürnberg
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

The lecture presents findings from long-term content analyses of the coverage of German election campaigns in newspapers and television news and of electoral spots on television. These findings thus show how the media reporting of elections changed over time and also of how the parties present themselves to the electorate. In particular, it will be discussed whether there has been a trend towards personalization in a political system that is dominated by parties.

Poverty is a behaviour: An evaluation of Life History theory in Cape Town

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 17 November, 2015 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Robin Smaill
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

Poverty and inequality are generational and increasing, and the implication is that they have immunity to intervention, or the current interventions.  These problems are better conceptualised as behavioural with the lack of wealth a symptom of that behaviour. Life History (LH) theory offers a biological perspective on human behaviour with a focus on resource allocation. The amount of resources that parents allocate to aspects of reproduction differs, resulting in different parenting and that has consequences for the life of the child. LH theory offers an explanation of resource allocation variation and this study uses the CAPS data set to evaluate the theory in Cape Town.

Educational achievement was the outcome variable in a multiple regression model.   The demographic and control variables were gender, race, age and ever pregnant. The variables were wealth and the themes of environment, school, school/parent, and parents. Between two and nine variables were used for each theme and many of variables were composite.

The model accounts for 35% of the variation in educational achievement and the significance is such that the results can be generalised beyond the sample. Parents and school/parents are the dominant factors. The environment and school alone are minor coefficients and wealth is important but with a low significance. There are also important interactions between variables.

This research offers a new perspective on the educational crisis, improving skills, improving health and reducing crime. Biology and particularly life history theory is shown to be a productive tool in understanding poverty and inequality. 

Afrobarometer/ CSSR Summer School 2015

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 17 November, 2015 - 09:00
Presenter(s): 
Afrobarometer/ CSSR
Venue: 
UCT
Abstract / Description: 

The Effect of Public Opinion on Legislator Behavior: Evidence from the Ugandan Parliament

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 10 November, 2015 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz ,Ph.D, Candidate Department of Political Science Columbia University
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

In many African states, voters and civil society typically play only a minor role in policymaking. Information about constituent preferences reaches politicians infrequently and unsystematically. This could mean that elected politicians are underinformed and/or under-incentivized to act in the interest of constituents. This project uses an experiment to estimate the impact of new information about voter’s preferences on their representatives’ stated preferences and legislative behavior. In June 2014, the Civil Society Coalition to Stop Maternal, Newborn, and Child Mortality in Uganda polled voters around the country on the extent to which they supported budget increases in health, and the extent to which they were likely to hold their elected representatives to account for failure to deliver adequate health services. The poll revealed that health was the most salient issue for voters and had grown in importance relative to other issues over the past years. Unsurprisingly, a majority of Ugandans felt that their representatives were doing lessthan they should to address systematic failures in service delivery, and reported that this fact was likely to drive their future voting decisions. This information was then distributed to some randomly selected Members of Parliament (MPs) and not others ahead of the final vote on the health budget. Using a petition, we are able to show that learning about citizen priorities pushed MPs, when contacted, to publicly support budget increases for health service provision at a higher rate than their colleagues without this information. Interestingly, treated (informed) MPs were less likely to respond to the petition at all. When it came to the budget, however, it passed unamended and without increases in spending. We interpret this result as illustrative of the extent to which politicians feel their actual actions in Parliament are hidden.

The democratizing force of multi-party elections: it does not work in Africa, does it work in Asia?

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 13 October, 2015 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Matthijs Bogaards ,Van Zyl Slabbert
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

Does the simple repetition of multi-party elections help to expand civil liberties and political rights? Do multi-party elections, no matter how unfree and unfair they may be, over time help to bring about a transition to democracy? In a series of influential publications, Staffan Lindberg has argued yes, based on his African data. Other scholars have been unable to find the same pattern in Latin America and the postcommunist states of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Moreover, Bogaards (2013, 2014) has recently cast doubt on the African evidence. The one region where the thesis of democratisation through elections has not been tested, so far, is Asia. This presentation seeks to fill that gap by explicitly engaging in "comparative regional democratization" or the application of comparative area studies to the study of democratization. Concretely, the paper asks whether the causal mechanisms and outcomes that Lindberg claims to have found in Africa can also be demonstrated in Asia. The answer to this question will help us with the identification of possible regionally specific processes of democratization.

About the presenter:

Matthijs Bogaards is the Van Zyl Slabbert Visiting Professor in the Department of Political Studies at UCT. He studied at the universities of Leiden, UC Berkeley, and the European University Institute in Florence and has taught at the University of Southampton, Jacobs University Bremen, the Central European University in Budapest, and the University for Peace in Costa Rica. His research interests include democracy in divided societies, deliberative democracy, comparative area studies, and African politics.

Can Donors Build Social Capital? Civil Society Assistance and Civic Engagement in sub-Saharan Africa

Event type: 
Seminar
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 6 October, 2015 - 12:45 to 14:00
Presenter(s): 
Sohyeon Kim
Venue: 
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 

 

Donors have been using various strategies to promote democracy in developing countries. In the mid-1990s, building civil society came to the fore amongst donors influenced by Putnam’s publication, Making Democracy Work, on the importance of social capital for good governance. Putnam concluded that horizontal networks of civic engagement strengthen the performance of a polity. Donors have been stressing vibrant civic engagement since then. This research is to find a correlation between donors’ assistance to foster civil society and civic engagement in 18 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data

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