Detecting Manipulation in Authoritarian Elections: Survey-Based Methods in Zimbabwe.

Event type: 
Date and time: 
Tuesday, 15 March, 2016 - 12:45 to 14:00
Professor Michael Bratton - Michigan State University
CSSR Seminar Room 4.29, Level 4 Leslie Social Science Building, Upper Campus
Abstract / Description: 
This paper compares official results from the July 2013 presidential and parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe with findings from a nationally representative pre-election survey.  The comparison confirms that the dominant incumbent party won the elections but by far smaller margins than officially reported. This discrepancy provides analytical leverage to identify the possible presence of coercive mobilization and opposition vote suppression.